Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Sturm wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 53.6% vs Gourde 46.0% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 58.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 74.7%
Neutral zone
Sturm 59.0%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 59.0%
59.0%
41.0%
Sturm
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Sturm
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (271)
47.2% (687)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
54.4% (90)
33.0% (88)
+21.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Sturm shoots left. Gourde is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (522).
Home / Away
Sturm
Gourde
Home
53.0% (168)
44.4% (356)
Away
56.0% (193)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Sturm
Gourde
P1
58.2%
42.2%
P2
53.2%
50.0%
P3
52.3%
44.5%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 17:15 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |