Scouting Report
Oskar Bäck holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Bäck shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.5% vs Bäck 51.0% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 52.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 52.2%
Neutral zone
Roy 52.8%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Roy
Bäck
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Roy
Bäck
Last 6: Roy 3-3 Bäck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
Bäck
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bäck
1
2
Roy
Bäck
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Bäck
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (3,621)
56.2% (162)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (463)
32.5% (40)
+12.4%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bäck shoots left. Roy is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (3,208).
Roy shoots right. Bäck is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (96).
Home / Away
Roy
Bäck
Home
49.5% (2,186)
52.6% (95)
Away
47.4% (2,174)
50.5% (107)
By Period
Roy
Bäck
P1
51.0%
47.4%
P2
46.1%
52.7%
P3
48.3%
53.7%
Final 5 min
47.4%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
54.0%▲
52.0%
48.5%
Bäck
46.0%▼
52.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 07:42 | Offensive | Oskar Bäck |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 05:19 | Neutral | Oskar Bäck |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 17:54 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 14:08 | Neutral | Oskar Bäck |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 1 | 17:02 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3 | 01:09 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |