Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 51.9% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 84.4%
Defensive zone
Roy 63.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 67.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Roy
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Roy
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Roy
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
0
Roy
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (547)
55.7% (856)
-3.8%
Power Play
54.1% (37)
57.5% (233)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
53.3% (92)
50.0% (144)
+3.3%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Roy shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Roy
O'Reilly
Home
54.0% (328)
55.5% (616)
Away
50.6% (348)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Roy
O'Reilly
P1
53.5%
58.1%
P2
51.6%
54.9%
P3
51.6%
53.9%
Final 5 min
48.1%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:59 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 02:33 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 05:40 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |