Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 52.7%). Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 51.9% vs Monahan 52.5% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 68.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 76.3%
Neutral zone
Monahan 53.9%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 64.2%
64.2%
35.8%
Roy
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Roy
Monahan
Last 5: Roy 2-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
Roy
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (547)
53.0% (874)
-1.1%
Power Play
54.1% (37)
54.7% (161)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
53.3% (92)
47.5% (101)
+5.8%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Roy shoots right. Monahan is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (426).
Home / Away
Roy
Monahan
Home
54.0% (328)
53.8% (558)
Away
50.6% (348)
51.7% (578)
By Period
Roy
Monahan
P1
53.5%
49.5%
P2
51.6%
54.8%
P3
51.6%
52.8%
Final 5 min
48.1%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 13:38 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 13:55 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2 | 08:33 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 18:18 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |