Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Wright on neutral-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Roy wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.4% vs Wright 43.3% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 78.1%
Defensive zone
Roy 68.4%
Neutral zone
Wright 55.0%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Roy
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Roy
Wright
Last 8: Roy 3-5 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Roy
Wright
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wright
3
4
Roy
Wright
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (3,719)
42.7% (1,326)
+6.0%
Power Play
49.5% (283)
45.1% (133)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (477)
33.3% (6)
+12.2%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Roy is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,191).
Roy shoots right. Wright is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (385).
Home / Away
Roy
Wright
Home
49.5% (2,221)
44.2% (746)
Away
47.3% (2,258)
41.4% (719)
By Period
Roy
Wright
P1
50.8%
44.5%
P2
46.3%
40.5%
P3
48.1%
44.0%
OT
50.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Wright
42.0%▬
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 17:08 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 02:17 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 03:45 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 08:32 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 06:04 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 06:54 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 03:54 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 01:21 | Neutral | Shane Wright |