Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 51.9% vs Hertl 57.5% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 87.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 82.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 57.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
Roy
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Roy
Hertl
Last 8: Roy 4-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Roy
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Roy
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (547)
58.7% (858)
-6.8%
Power Play
54.1% (37)
55.8% (285)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
53.3% (92)
62.9% (35)
-9.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Roy shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Roy
Hertl
Home
54.0% (328)
60.1% (599)
Away
50.6% (348)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Roy
Hertl
P1
53.5%
52.4%
P2
51.6%
63.9%
P3
51.6%
58.5%
Final 5 min
48.1%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 07:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 10:14 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 01:42 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 07:11 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 01:33 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 19:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 19:21 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 08:59 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |