Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 51.9% vs Gourde 46.0% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 58.2%
Defensive zone
Roy 70.8%
Neutral zone
Roy 55.9%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 62.4%
62.4%
37.6%
Roy
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Roy
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
0
Roy
Gourde
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Roy
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (547)
47.2% (687)
+4.7%
Power Play
54.1% (37)
45.0% (20)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
53.3% (92)
33.0% (88)
+20.3%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Roy shoots right. Gourde is 43.8% vs right-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Roy
Gourde
Home
54.0% (328)
44.4% (356)
Away
50.6% (348)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Roy
Gourde
P1
53.5%
42.2%
P2
51.6%
50.0%
P3
51.6%
44.5%
Final 5 min
48.1%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 06:25 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 12:01 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 10:58 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |