Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stenlund wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.2% vs Cates 45.5% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 63.1%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 97.3%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 85.0%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 84.0%
84.0%
16.0%
Stenlund
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
0
(7 meetings)
7
0
Stenlund
Cates
Last 7: Stenlund 7-0 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
3
0
Stenlund
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (650)
45.5% (756)
+10.7%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
42.1% (114)
+11.1%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (312)
44.7% (47)
+6.9%
On power play, Stenlund has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Stenlund is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (688).
Stenlund shoots right. Cates is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Cates
Home
56.9% (483)
46.2% (468)
Away
52.5% (526)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Stenlund
Cates
P1
54.2%
46.0%
P2
53.2%
47.5%
P3
56.9%
42.1%
OT
42.1%
18.2%
Final 5 min
57.5%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 14:21 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 02:58 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 19:25 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 12:52 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 12:47 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 01:39 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 10:29 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |