Scouting Report
Nick Suzuki holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Suzuki 50.6% vs Cates 45.5% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 76.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 73.4%
Neutral zone
Cates 71.7%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 73.0%
27.0%
73.0%
Suzuki
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Suzuki
Cates
Last 8: Suzuki 2-6 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Suzuki
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Suzuki
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
1
4
Suzuki
Cates
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Suzuki
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (945)
45.5% (756)
+5.8%
Power Play
50.7% (282)
42.1% (114)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (67)
44.7% (47)
-4.4%
On power play, Suzuki has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Suzuki is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (976).
Suzuki shoots right. Cates is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
Suzuki
Cates
Home
51.0% (637)
46.2% (468)
Away
50.2% (657)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Suzuki
Cates
P1
53.1%
46.0%
P2
47.4%
47.5%
P3
51.3%
42.1%
OT
48.6%
18.2%
Final 5 min
49.1%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Suzuki
54.0%▼
56.5%
50.6%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:26 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 02:21 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:09 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 06:26 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 01:32 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:39 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 08:22 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 13:28 | Neutral | Noah Cates |