Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Cates wins 43.1% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Zacha 51.8% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 62.1%
Defensive zone
Zacha 84.9%
Neutral zone
Zacha 72.0%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 70.7%
29.3%
70.7%
Cates
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Cates
Zacha
Last 10: Cates 6-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
3
1
Cates
Zacha
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cates
Zacha
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
3
2
Cates
Zacha
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (756)
53.0% (700)
-7.5%
Power Play
42.1% (114)
54.1% (109)
-12.0%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
39.2% (74)
+5.5%
On power play, Zacha has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Cates shoots left. Zacha is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (520).
Home / Away
Cates
Zacha
Home
46.2% (468)
51.6% (438)
Away
43.9% (449)
52.4% (445)
By Period
Cates
Zacha
P1
46.0%
57.0%
P2
47.5%
48.9%
P3
42.1%
50.5%
OT
18.2%
42.1%
Final 5 min
44.8%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 13:03 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 02:40 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 09:38 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 06:14 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 08:33 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 05:50 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:38 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 04:04 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 03:58 | Offensive | Noah Cates |