Scouting Report
Pierre-Luc Dubois holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Cates wins 43.1% vs left-shot opponents — Dubois shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Dubois 48.9% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 61.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 56.4%
Neutral zone
Cates 57.3%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 58.0%
58.0%
42.0%
Cates
Dubois
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Cates
Dubois
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dubois
0
1
Cates
Dubois
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dubois
0
2
Cates
Dubois
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Dubois
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (756)
44.8% (259)
+0.7%
Power Play
42.1% (114)
70.6% (34)
-28.5%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
75.0% (8)
-30.3%
On penalty kill, Dubois has a +30.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dubois shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Cates shoots left. Dubois is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (171).
Home / Away
Cates
Dubois
Home
46.2% (468)
46.6% (163)
Away
43.9% (449)
50.7% (138)
By Period
Cates
Dubois
P1
46.0%
44.0%
P2
47.5%
51.5%
P3
42.1%
49.5%
OT
18.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.8%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Dubois
40.0%▼
50.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | 1 | 14:03 | Defensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 10:00 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 07:26 | Defensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |