Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Cates wins 45.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Johansen 53.3% (-10.4%)
H2H factor
Johansen leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 77.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 80.5%
Neutral zone
Cates 77.3%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 77.7%
77.7%
22.3%
Cates
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
9
(10 meetings)
1
9
Cates
Johansen
Last 10: Cates 1-9 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
3
Cates
Johansen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Cates
Johansen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
5
Cates
Johansen
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,786)
53.1% (11,017)
-9.0%
Power Play
42.9% (254)
56.2% (2,163)
-13.3%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
50.5% (978)
-15.6%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Cates is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
Cates shoots left. Johansen is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (9,788).
Home / Away
Cates
Johansen
Home
43.9% (1,708)
55.0% (7,001)
Away
42.2% (1,705)
51.7% (7,158)
By Period
Cates
Johansen
P1
44.5%
53.2%
P2
43.7%
53.9%
P3
41.2%
52.8%
OT
29.4%
58.2%
Final 5 min
41.4%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 02:13 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 17:42 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 13:46 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 09:21 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 05:55 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 03:13 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |