Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Reinhart 42.9% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 53.1%
Defensive zone
Cates 56.9%
Neutral zone
Cates 52.5%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
Cates
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Cates
Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cates
Reinhart
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (756)
39.0% (77)
+6.5%
Power Play
42.1% (114)
35.4% (48)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
40.9% (22)
+3.8%
On power play, Cates has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Cates is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (350).
Cates shoots left. Reinhart is 35.3% vs left-shot opponents (116).
Home / Away
Cates
Reinhart
Home
46.2% (468)
35.7% (84)
Away
43.9% (449)
41.3% (63)
By Period
Cates
Reinhart
P1
46.0%
42.6%
P2
47.5%
34.7%
P3
42.1%
37.3%
Final 5 min
44.8%
28.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
38.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 10:51 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 17:44 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |