Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Cates wins 43.1% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Aho 50.5% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 58.7%
Defensive zone
Cates 69.4%
Neutral zone
Cates 61.3%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Cates
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Cates
Aho
Last 10: Cates 4-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cates
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
Cates
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
2
1
Cates
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (756)
50.5% (878)
-5.0%
Power Play
42.1% (114)
53.5% (144)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
44.3% (61)
+0.4%
On power play, Aho has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Cates shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Cates
Aho
Home
46.2% (468)
53.8% (571)
Away
43.9% (449)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Cates
Aho
P1
46.0%
49.0%
P2
47.5%
51.7%
P3
42.1%
50.3%
OT
18.2%
58.8%
Final 5 min
44.8%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | OT | 00:24 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 13:06 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 08:15 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 13, 2025 | OT | 00:58 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:49 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:17 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:33 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:56 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:53 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:14 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |