Scouting Report
Shane Pinto holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pinto on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Pinto 51.1% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 80.3%
Defensive zone
Pinto 65.2%
Neutral zone
Cates 65.3%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
Cates
Pinto
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Cates
Pinto
Last 8: Cates 3-5 Pinto
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pinto
0
3
Cates
Pinto
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
3
2
Cates
Pinto
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Pinto
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (756)
50.5% (556)
-5.0%
Power Play
42.1% (114)
68.0% (25)
-25.9%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
51.1% (94)
-6.4%
On power play, Pinto has a +25.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pinto shoots right. Cates is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (350).
Cates shoots left. Pinto is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Cates
Pinto
Home
46.2% (468)
50.0% (310)
Away
43.9% (449)
52.3% (365)
By Period
Cates
Pinto
P1
46.0%
51.8%
P2
47.5%
49.8%
P3
42.1%
53.1%
OT
18.2%
44.4%
Final 5 min
44.8%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Pinto
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 19:10 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 10:47 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 08:13 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 8, 2025 | OT | 02:00 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 04:58 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 19:55 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 10:22 | Neutral | Noah Cates |