Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Cates wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Jost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Jost 40.5% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 58.9%
Defensive zone
Cates 61.3%
Neutral zone
Cates 61.2%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Cates
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Cates
Jost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Jost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cates
Jost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,786)
41.0% (2,016)
+3.1%
Power Play
42.9% (254)
34.2% (73)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
35.2% (256)
-0.3%
On power play, Cates has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Cates shoots left. Jost is 40.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,469).
Home / Away
Cates
Jost
Home
43.9% (1,708)
41.9% (1,240)
Away
42.2% (1,705)
38.1% (1,105)
By Period
Cates
Jost
P1
44.5%
38.5%
P2
43.7%
41.1%
P3
41.2%
40.9%
OT
29.4%
40.0%
Final 5 min
41.4%
38.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
40.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 14:33 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 11:02 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Jan 9, 2023 | 1 | 19:08 | Neutral | Noah Cates |