Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Cates wins 45.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Johnston 49.0% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Johnston 77.1%
Defensive zone
Johnston 76.2%
Neutral zone
Johnston 70.8%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 75.5%
24.5%
75.5%
Cates
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Cates
Johnston
Last 10: Cates 7-3 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
0
Cates
Johnston
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Cates
Johnston
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
2
0
Cates
Johnston
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,786)
49.1% (2,232)
-5.0%
Power Play
42.9% (254)
52.5% (179)
-9.6%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
44.7% (237)
-9.8%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Cates is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
Cates shoots left. Johnston is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,999).
Home / Away
Cates
Johnston
Home
43.9% (1,708)
49.2% (1,332)
Away
42.2% (1,705)
48.7% (1,316)
By Period
Cates
Johnston
P1
44.5%
50.0%
P2
43.7%
48.1%
P3
41.2%
48.6%
OT
29.4%
51.5%
Final 5 min
41.4%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | 2 | 15:27 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 2 | 07:12 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 10:57 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 17:20 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 05:51 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 09:28 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 15:11 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 07:35 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:35 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 07:42 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 04:45 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |