Scouting Report
Noel Acciari holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Marner wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Acciari shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 42.5% vs Acciari 50.8% (-10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 80.4%
Defensive zone
Acciari 91.4%
Neutral zone
Acciari 67.5%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
Marner
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Marner
Acciari
Last 5: Marner 3-2 Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
2
1
Marner
Acciari
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marner
1
0
Marner
Acciari
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Acciari
0
1
Marner
Acciari
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
40.8% (316)
52.7% (313)
-11.9%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
33.3% (18)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
49.7% (195)
-24.7%
On penalty kill, Acciari has a +24.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. Marner is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (86).
Marner shoots right. Acciari is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
Marner
Acciari
Home
36.0% (186)
52.6% (291)
Away
45.6% (147)
48.9% (235)
By Period
Marner
Acciari
P1
40.7%
53.7%
P2
41.0%
51.1%
P3
38.6%
48.5%
Final 5 min
41.8%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
40.2%
Acciari
44.0%▬
44.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 3 | 07:51 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 2 | 05:47 | Neutral | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 05:47 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 05:35 | Offensive | Noel Acciari |