Scouting Report
Noel Acciari holds a +18.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Acciari on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Acciari 50.8% vs Zegras 37.0% (+18.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 90.5%
Defensive zone
Acciari 92.4%
Neutral zone
Acciari 69.0%
Result
Noel Acciari favored at 70.5%
70.5%
29.5%
Acciari
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Acciari
Zegras
Last 7: Acciari 4-3 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
Acciari
Zegras
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Acciari
3
0
Acciari
Zegras
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
1
2
Acciari
Zegras
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Acciari
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (313)
33.0% (264)
+19.7%
Power Play
33.3% (18)
32.1% (56)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
49.7% (195)
50.0% (2)
-0.3%
On even strength, Acciari has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Acciari is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Acciari shoots right. Zegras is 33.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Acciari
Zegras
Home
52.6% (291)
35.3% (173)
Away
48.9% (235)
30.2% (149)
By Period
Acciari
Zegras
P1
53.7%
33.0%
P2
51.1%
35.7%
P3
48.5%
29.7%
OT
42.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.2%
29.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Acciari
44.0%▬
44.5%
51.0%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
32.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 04:46 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 01:35 | Neutral | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 13:44 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 14:00 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Oct 28, 2025 | OT | 04:32 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 16:53 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:45 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |