Scouting Report
Oliver Kapanen holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kapanen on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sourdif wins 42.0% vs right-shot opponents — Kapanen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sourdif 45.6% vs Kapanen 47.1% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kapanen 70.3%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 54.3%
Neutral zone
Kapanen 66.4%
Result
Oliver Kapanen favored at 60.1%
39.9%
60.1%
Sourdif
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Sourdif
Kapanen
Last 6: Sourdif 4-2 Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
1
0
Sourdif
Kapanen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
2
0
Sourdif
Kapanen
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kapanen
1
2
Sourdif
Kapanen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sourdif
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (585)
46.5% (527)
-2.2%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
54.8% (42)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
61.5% (13)
39.5% (38)
+22.0%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. Sourdif is 42.0% vs right-shot opponents (181).
Sourdif shoots right. Kapanen is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (158).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Kapanen
Home
43.6% (321)
47.0% (315)
Away
46.2% (301)
46.2% (292)
By Period
Sourdif
Kapanen
P1
41.9%
41.6%
P2
44.3%
50.7%
P3
47.9%
47.6%
OT
100.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
36.0%▼
41.0%
44.9%
Kapanen
32.0%▼
47.0%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 18:35 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 15:54 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 04:54 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 18:34 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 16:12 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:36 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |