Scouting Report
Ridly Greig holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kapanen wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kapanen 46.8% vs Greig 49.0% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kapanen 85.4%
Defensive zone
Kapanen 61.9%
Neutral zone
Kapanen 70.0%
Result
Oliver Kapanen favored at 69.8%
69.8%
30.2%
Kapanen
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Kapanen
Greig
Last 7: Kapanen 1-6 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kapanen
Greig
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
4
Kapanen
Greig
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greig
0
1
Kapanen
Greig
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kapanen
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (572)
48.7% (1,144)
-2.4%
Power Play
50.9% (53)
56.8% (74)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (38)
47.2% (178)
-7.7%
On penalty kill, Greig has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Kapanen is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (493).
Kapanen shoots right. Greig is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (643).
Home / Away
Kapanen
Greig
Home
46.3% (348)
49.9% (688)
Away
46.3% (315)
48.0% (708)
By Period
Kapanen
Greig
P1
41.7%
46.0%
P2
49.6%
51.8%
P3
47.5%
49.1%
OT
25.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
44.1%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kapanen
32.0%▼
47.0%
46.3%
Greig
58.0%▲
52.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | 3 | 04:05 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 11, 2026 | 1 | 03:18 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 09:31 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 16:34 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 16:08 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:21 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |