Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +17.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Penner wins 41.1% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Penner 44.6% vs Gaustad 59.0% (-17.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Penner 69.1%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 79.6%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 60.1%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 62.5%
37.5%
62.5%
Penner
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Penner
Gaustad
Last 8: Penner 4-4 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Penner
2
0
Penner
Gaustad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
4
Penner
Gaustad
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Penner
2
0
Penner
Gaustad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Penner
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
41.1% (151)
58.6% (790)
-17.5%
Power Play
50.0% (92)
66.7% (93)
-16.7%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (59)
61.0% (269)
-25.4%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Penner is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (197).
Penner shoots left. Gaustad is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Penner
Gaustad
Home
47.5% (158)
60.6% (554)
Away
37.8% (148)
58.9% (604)
By Period
Penner
Gaustad
P1
38.1%
61.3%
P2
36.2%
55.5%
P3
54.7%
62.3%
OT
27.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
58.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Penner
34.0%▼
42.0%
42.8%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
59.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2010 | 3 | 14:09 | Offensive | Dustin Penner |
| Dec 28, 2010 | 3 | 11:06 | Offensive | Dustin Penner |
| Dec 28, 2010 | 3 | 03:38 | Neutral | Dustin Penner |
| Dec 28, 2010 | 3 | 00:29 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 28, 2010 | 2 | 17:15 | Neutral | Dustin Penner |
| Dec 28, 2010 | 2 | 17:07 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 28, 2010 | 2 | 10:02 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 28, 2010 | 2 | 04:16 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |