Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 22 meetings). Gaustad wins 57.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 57.6% vs Stamkos 51.1% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 23-23 in 46 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 89.2%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 72.4%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 59.3%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Gaustad
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
23
(46 meetings)
23
23
Gaustad
Stamkos
Last 10: Gaustad 6-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
13
Gaustad
Stamkos
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
18
4
Gaustad
Stamkos
22 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
5
6
Gaustad
Stamkos
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (4,334)
50.5% (9,825)
+7.7%
Power Play
65.4% (188)
55.2% (1,729)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
54.8% (1,290)
49.6% (827)
+5.2%
On power play, Gaustad has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Gaustad is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,052).
Gaustad shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Stamkos
Home
59.5% (2,929)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
55.9% (2,897)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Gaustad
Stamkos
P1
58.2%
49.2%
P2
56.4%
52.7%
P3
58.3%
50.9%
OT
66.0%
54.3%
Final 5 min
57.8%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2016 | 3 | 06:43 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 12, 2016 | 2 | 00:19 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 20, 2015 | 3 | 15:01 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 20, 2015 | 3 | 14:47 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 20, 2015 | 3 | 03:32 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 20, 2015 | 1 | 16:02 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 20, 2015 | 1 | 14:12 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 20, 2015 | 1 | 03:49 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 26, 2015 | 3 | 15:41 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 26, 2015 | 3 | 15:31 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 26, 2015 | 3 | 10:32 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 26, 2015 | 3 | 02:15 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 26, 2015 | 2 | 14:34 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 26, 2015 | 2 | 10:33 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 26, 2015 | 1 | 11:58 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 26, 2015 | 1 | 05:09 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 10, 2015 | OT | 02:15 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 10, 2015 | 3 | 05:43 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 10, 2015 | 3 | 00:22 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 10, 2015 | 2 | 01:08 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |