Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Schmaltz wins 41.2% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 42.6% vs Stastny 55.1% (-12.7%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 21-6 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 88.1%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 90.9%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 96.0%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 92.3%
92.3%
7.7%
Schmaltz
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
21
(27 meetings)
6
21
Schmaltz
Stastny
Last 10: Schmaltz 3-7 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Schmaltz
Stastny
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
9
Schmaltz
Stastny
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
9
Schmaltz
Stastny
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
41.3% (3,431)
54.6% (10,616)
-13.3%
Power Play
47.3% (655)
59.1% (1,994)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (135)
52.9% (1,119)
-5.5%
On even strength, Stastny has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (3,049).
Schmaltz shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,907).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Stastny
Home
42.8% (2,114)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
42.0% (2,107)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Schmaltz
Stastny
P1
41.3%
56.3%
P2
42.8%
55.4%
P3
43.1%
53.5%
OT
42.4%
62.9%
Final 5 min
42.3%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
42.4%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2019 | 2 | 19:21 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 1 | 06:03 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 3 | 13:44 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 2 | 17:28 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 2 | 11:39 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 1 | 11:16 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 30, 2018 | 1 | 13:03 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 3 | 14:03 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 2 | 13:57 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 2 | 00:34 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 2 | 18:10 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 2 | 09:44 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 3 | 13:24 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 2 | 08:04 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 2 | 00:44 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 1 | 18:20 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 1 | 06:38 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 18, 2017 | 3 | 16:07 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 18, 2017 | 3 | 01:07 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |