Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 14 meetings). Stastny wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.1% vs Zacha 49.2% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 16-15 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 63.2%
Defensive zone
Stastny 58.0%
Neutral zone
Stastny 63.8%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
Stastny
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
15
(31 meetings)
16
15
Stastny
Zacha
Last 10: Stastny 4-6 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
5
9
Stastny
Zacha
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
7
4
Stastny
Zacha
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
4
2
Stastny
Zacha
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (10,616)
48.9% (5,156)
+5.7%
Power Play
59.1% (1,994)
55.7% (813)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (1,119)
42.2% (557)
+10.7%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Stastny is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,871).
Stastny shoots left. Zacha is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,965).
Home / Away
Stastny
Zacha
Home
55.9% (7,073)
49.7% (3,381)
Away
54.3% (6,705)
48.6% (3,145)
By Period
Stastny
Zacha
P1
56.3%
49.9%
P2
55.4%
49.2%
P3
53.5%
48.2%
OT
62.9%
53.5%
Final 5 min
55.7%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2022 | 3 | 03:58 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 02:41 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 1 | 09:50 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 2 | 15:15 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 2 | 12:40 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 1 | 04:36 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 3, 2019 | 3 | 00:23 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 3, 2019 | 2 | 10:48 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 3, 2019 | 2 | 07:22 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 3, 2019 | 1 | 00:25 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 3 | 05:43 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 1 | 13:00 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 1 | 06:22 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 1 | 03:10 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 1 | 00:22 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 1 | 00:18 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 14, 2018 | 3 | 00:46 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 14, 2018 | 2 | 14:29 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 14, 2018 | 1 | 14:50 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |