Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stastny wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Cervenka shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.1% vs Cervenka 48.0% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 87.3%
Defensive zone
Stastny 85.1%
Neutral zone
Stastny 88.1%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 86.2%
86.2%
13.8%
Stastny
Cervenka
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Stastny
Cervenka
Last 5: Stastny 4-1 Cervenka
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cervenka
0
1
Stastny
Cervenka
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
3
0
Stastny
Cervenka
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
0
Stastny
Cervenka
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Cervenka
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (10,616)
40.9% (93)
+13.7%
Power Play
59.1% (1,994)
66.7% (30)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (1,119)
0.0% (2)
+52.9%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +52.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cervenka shoots left. Stastny is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,871).
Stastny shoots left. Cervenka is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (83).
Home / Away
Stastny
Cervenka
Home
55.9% (7,073)
47.5% (59)
Away
54.3% (6,705)
45.5% (66)
By Period
Stastny
Cervenka
P1
56.3%
32.7%
P2
55.4%
50.0%
P3
53.5%
62.5%
OT
62.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
46.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Cervenka
46.0%▬
46.4%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2013 | 2 | 09:19 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 2 | 05:30 | Offensive | Roman Cervenka |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 2 | 04:39 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 31, 2013 | 1 | 19:23 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 31, 2013 | 1 | 07:00 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |