Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Stastny wins 58.4% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.1% vs Carrick 52.2% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 90.1%
Defensive zone
Carrick 66.6%
Neutral zone
Stastny 64.3%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
Stastny
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Stastny
Carrick
Last 10: Stastny 7-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
4
0
Stastny
Carrick
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Stastny
Carrick
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (10,616)
52.2% (2,544)
+2.4%
Power Play
59.1% (1,994)
61.3% (75)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (1,119)
50.8% (435)
+2.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,907).
Stastny shoots left. Carrick is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,211).
Home / Away
Stastny
Carrick
Home
55.9% (7,073)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
54.3% (6,705)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Stastny
Carrick
P1
56.3%
51.8%
P2
55.4%
52.3%
P3
53.5%
52.6%
OT
62.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 08:01 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 17:45 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 04:31 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 18:01 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 09:06 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 04:40 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 2 | 08:26 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 1 | 13:48 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 1 | 11:03 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |