Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.1% vs 54.3%). Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Stastny wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.1% vs Hertl 54.3% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 17-12 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 55.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 51.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 52.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Stastny
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
17
(29 meetings)
12
17
Stastny
Hertl
Last 10: Stastny 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
6
6
Stastny
Hertl
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
5
Stastny
Hertl
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
6
Stastny
Hertl
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (10,616)
53.9% (8,303)
+0.7%
Power Play
59.1% (1,994)
59.2% (1,995)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (1,119)
46.3% (806)
+6.6%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stastny is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,871).
Stastny shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Stastny
Hertl
Home
55.9% (7,073)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
54.3% (6,705)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Stastny
Hertl
P1
56.3%
53.6%
P2
55.4%
54.2%
P3
53.5%
55.3%
OT
62.9%
46.9%
Final 5 min
55.7%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 06:47 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 12:37 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 08:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 3 | 14:29 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 3 | 10:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 2 | 18:12 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 2, 2019 | 2 | 10:14 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 2, 2019 | 1 | 19:25 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 3 | 15:02 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 3 | 05:00 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 3 | 04:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 3 | 00:43 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 2 | 03:26 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 2 | 03:23 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 1 | 18:10 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 1 | 06:24 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 1 | 03:37 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 1 | 00:30 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 05:39 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 05:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |