Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stastny wins 59.2% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 56.3% vs Seguin 54.2% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 58.9%
Defensive zone
Seguin 62.5%
Neutral zone
Stastny 50.9%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Stastny
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Stastny
Seguin
Last 6: Stastny 3-3 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
0
Stastny
Seguin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Stastny
Seguin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
2
Stastny
Seguin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (412)
55.0% (713)
+2.5%
Power Play
60.0% (65)
56.7% (104)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
47.2% (53)
-2.8%
On power play, Stastny has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Stastny is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (196).
Stastny shoots left. Seguin is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Stastny
Seguin
Home
58.3% (276)
56.2% (443)
Away
56.7% (210)
53.2% (427)
By Period
Stastny
Seguin
P1
63.7%
54.2%
P2
57.3%
52.9%
P3
50.4%
57.1%
Final 5 min
56.0%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
57.6%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2023 | 2 | 01:33 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 1 | 15:17 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 1 | 04:02 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 13:54 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 18:44 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 14:41 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |