Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 13 meetings). Stastny wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.1% vs Smith 50.6% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 24-17 in 41 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 88.4%
Defensive zone
Stastny 62.6%
Neutral zone
Stastny 78.8%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 76.3%
76.3%
23.7%
Stastny
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
17
(41 meetings)
24
17
Stastny
Smith
Last 10: Stastny 7-3 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
12
1
Stastny
Smith
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
4
10
Stastny
Smith
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
8
6
Stastny
Smith
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (10,616)
51.6% (5,265)
+3.0%
Power Play
59.1% (1,994)
51.2% (342)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (1,119)
45.3% (985)
+7.6%
On power play, Stastny has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Stastny is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,871).
Stastny shoots left. Smith is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (4,205).
Home / Away
Stastny
Smith
Home
55.9% (7,073)
52.5% (3,289)
Away
54.3% (6,705)
48.7% (3,310)
By Period
Stastny
Smith
P1
56.3%
49.9%
P2
55.4%
50.0%
P3
53.5%
51.9%
OT
62.9%
51.6%
Final 5 min
55.7%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2019 | 3 | 19:56 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 3 | 16:31 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 1 | 05:49 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 3 | 16:39 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 1 | 02:58 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 2, 2018 | 3 | 16:13 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 2, 2018 | 2 | 01:28 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 23, 2018 | 2 | 14:26 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 23, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Jan 23, 2018 | 1 | 03:23 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 18, 2018 | 2 | 19:48 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 18, 2018 | 2 | 11:13 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 18, 2018 | 1 | 18:20 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 18, 2018 | 1 | 13:36 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 7, 2017 | 3 | 00:38 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 7, 2017 | 2 | 11:54 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 7, 2017 | 2 | 04:39 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 7, 2017 | 1 | 18:11 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 7, 2017 | 1 | 17:50 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |