Scouting Report
Ryan Strome holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Buchnevich wins 44.4% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Buchnevich 43.3% vs Strome 45.9% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Buchnevich 50.2%
Defensive zone
Strome 68.4%
Neutral zone
Strome 54.8%
Result
Ryan Strome favored at 63.8%
36.2%
63.8%
Buchnevich
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Buchnevich
Strome
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
2
0
Buchnevich
Strome
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Strome
0
1
Buchnevich
Strome
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Buchnevich
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
40.5% (190)
45.4% (315)
-4.9%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
35.7% (28)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
30.0% (10)
50.0% (4)
-20.0%
On penalty kill, Strome has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Buchnevich is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (81).
Buchnevich shoots left. Strome is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (250).
Home / Away
Buchnevich
Strome
Home
40.7% (118)
42.6% (188)
Away
39.6% (96)
47.2% (159)
By Period
Buchnevich
Strome
P1
42.3%
38.6%
P2
37.5%
48.4%
P3
40.3%
46.2%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
40.5%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Buchnevich
48.0%▲
41.0%
40.2%
Strome
50.0%▲
45.0%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 17:16 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 14:44 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 07:32 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |