Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +15.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 33.0% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.5% vs Zacha 51.8% (-15.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 59.8%
Defensive zone
Zacha 89.0%
Neutral zone
Zacha 65.4%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 74.7%
25.3%
74.7%
Hughes
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Hughes
Zacha
Last 7: Hughes 4-3 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
0
Hughes
Zacha
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
2
Hughes
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
1
Hughes
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
36.7% (305)
53.0% (700)
-16.3%
Power Play
14.3% (7)
54.1% (109)
-39.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
39.2% (74)
-5.9%
On power play, Zacha has a +39.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Hughes is 33.0% vs left-shot opponents (206).
Hughes shoots left. Zacha is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (520).
Home / Away
Hughes
Zacha
Home
35.8% (159)
51.6% (438)
Away
36.5% (159)
52.4% (445)
By Period
Hughes
Zacha
P1
42.3%
57.0%
P2
28.2%
48.9%
P3
37.2%
50.5%
Final 5 min
27.5%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.2%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 16:31 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 16:16 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 13:56 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 03:05 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |