Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.5% vs Zacha 51.8% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 50.3%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 58.7%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 58.4%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Bjugstad
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Bjugstad
Zacha
Last 5: Bjugstad 2-3 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bjugstad
Zacha
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
2
Bjugstad
Zacha
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (292)
53.0% (700)
-3.3%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
54.1% (109)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (36)
39.2% (74)
+8.0%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Bjugstad shoots right. Zacha is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Zacha
Home
48.7% (193)
51.6% (438)
Away
50.4% (141)
52.4% (445)
By Period
Bjugstad
Zacha
P1
41.5%
57.0%
P2
57.3%
48.9%
P3
50.0%
50.5%
OT
33.3%
42.1%
Final 5 min
51.7%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.4%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 05:15 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 02:20 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 08:08 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 11:44 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 05:29 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |