Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.2% vs 48.4%). Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 49.2% vs Carpenter 48.5% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 13-9 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 83.8%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 56.3%
Neutral zone
Zacha 55.2%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 64.5%
64.5%
35.5%
Zacha
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
9
(22 meetings)
13
9
Zacha
Carpenter
Last 10: Zacha 5-5 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
9
1
Zacha
Carpenter
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
2
5
Zacha
Carpenter
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
2
3
Zacha
Carpenter
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (5,156)
49.6% (2,027)
-0.7%
Power Play
55.7% (813)
41.5% (41)
+14.2%
Penalty Kill
42.2% (557)
43.9% (467)
-1.7%
On power play, Zacha has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Zacha is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,560).
Zacha shoots left. Carpenter is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Home / Away
Zacha
Carpenter
Home
49.7% (3,381)
51.2% (1,290)
Away
48.6% (3,145)
45.5% (1,245)
By Period
Zacha
Carpenter
P1
49.9%
49.6%
P2
49.2%
47.7%
P3
48.2%
48.0%
OT
53.5%
55.6%
Final 5 min
47.3%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
49.2%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 05:43 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 13:57 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 02:50 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 02:48 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 12:58 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 09:48 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 3 | 15:48 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 2 | 07:22 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 1 | 07:30 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 3 | 06:16 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 2 | 05:38 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 1 | 19:14 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 1 | 12:30 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 1 | 04:21 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 1 | 01:19 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 3 | 05:38 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 14, 2018 | 3 | 13:51 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Dec 14, 2018 | 2 | 14:12 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 14, 2018 | 1 | 01:19 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |