Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 51.8% vs Carrick 54.2% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 55.4%
Defensive zone
Carrick 72.8%
Neutral zone
Carrick 63.2%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 65.6%
34.4%
65.6%
Zacha
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Zacha
Carrick
Last 8: Zacha 5-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Zacha
Carrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
5
1
Zacha
Carrick
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (700)
55.5% (470)
-2.5%
Power Play
54.1% (109)
66.7% (3)
-12.6%
Penalty Kill
39.2% (74)
50.0% (58)
-10.8%
On power play, Carrick has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Zacha is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Zacha shoots left. Carrick is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Zacha
Carrick
Home
51.6% (438)
58.6% (261)
Away
52.4% (445)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Zacha
Carrick
P1
57.0%
55.9%
P2
48.9%
53.5%
P3
50.5%
55.6%
OT
42.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | 3 | 06:40 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 1 | 18:07 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 1 | 15:18 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 1 | 11:46 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 08:52 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 02:12 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |