Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.0% vs 55.4%). Danault wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Danault 54.5% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 61.0%
Defensive zone
Danault 71.8%
Neutral zone
Danault 52.5%
Result
Phillip Danault favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
Danault
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Danault
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Danault
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Danault
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Danault
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Danault
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (745)
55.7% (856)
+0.5%
Power Play
45.1% (51)
57.5% (233)
-12.4%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (124)
50.0% (144)
+1.6%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Danault is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (618).
Danault shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Danault
O'Reilly
Home
56.7% (402)
55.5% (616)
Away
53.7% (518)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Danault
O'Reilly
P1
55.5%
58.1%
P2
54.2%
54.9%
P3
55.2%
53.9%
OT
55.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.4%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Danault
50.0%▼
54.5%
55.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 01:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 25, 2025 | OT | 04:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 05:55 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 05:30 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |