Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Danault on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Danault wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Danault 54.5% vs Hertl 57.5% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Danault leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 91.1%
Defensive zone
Danault 59.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 74.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 68.9%
31.1%
68.9%
Danault
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Danault
Hertl
Last 10: Danault 7-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Danault
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danault
4
0
Danault
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Danault
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Danault
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (745)
58.7% (858)
-2.5%
Power Play
45.1% (51)
55.8% (285)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (124)
62.9% (35)
-11.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Danault is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (618).
Danault shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Danault
Hertl
Home
56.7% (402)
60.1% (599)
Away
53.7% (518)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Danault
Hertl
P1
55.5%
52.4%
P2
54.2%
63.9%
P3
55.2%
58.5%
OT
55.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.4%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Danault
50.0%▼
54.5%
55.0%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 13:15 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 07:00 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 19:51 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 14:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 11:54 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 11:39 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 09:06 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 08:43 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 06:07 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 01:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:12 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 14:21 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |