Scouting Report
Quinton Byfield holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Byfield on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Marner wins 39.7% vs left-shot opponents — Byfield shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 42.5% vs Byfield 45.8% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Byfield 53.3%
Defensive zone
Byfield 85.0%
Neutral zone
Byfield 72.2%
Result
Quinton Byfield favored at 68.3%
31.7%
68.3%
Marner
Byfield
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Marner
Byfield
Last 8: Marner 5-3 Byfield
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Byfield
1
2
Marner
Byfield
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marner
2
0
Marner
Byfield
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
2
1
Marner
Byfield
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
Byfield
Edge
Even Strength
40.8% (316)
46.8% (801)
-6.0%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
50.8% (59)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
35.9% (153)
-10.9%
On penalty kill, Byfield has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Byfield shoots left. Marner is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (247).
Marner shoots right. Byfield is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (347).
Home / Away
Marner
Byfield
Home
36.0% (186)
46.3% (462)
Away
45.6% (147)
44.6% (551)
By Period
Marner
Byfield
P1
40.7%
44.6%
P2
41.0%
43.4%
P3
38.6%
48.7%
Final 5 min
41.8%
42.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
40.2%
Byfield
54.0%▼
57.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 17:06 | Offensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 16:56 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 16:42 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 13:28 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 01:35 | Offensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 13:29 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 01:02 | Neutral | Quinton Byfield |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 05:26 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |