Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Byfield wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Byfield 45.8% vs Hertl 57.5% (-12.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Byfield 73.0%
Defensive zone
Byfield 92.5%
Neutral zone
Byfield 81.4%
Result
Quinton Byfield favored at 81.4%
81.4%
18.6%
Byfield
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Byfield
Hertl
Last 9: Byfield 2-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Byfield
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Byfield
2
1
Byfield
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Byfield
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Byfield
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (801)
58.7% (858)
-11.9%
Power Play
50.8% (59)
55.8% (285)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
35.9% (153)
62.9% (35)
-27.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +27.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Byfield is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (666).
Byfield shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Byfield
Hertl
Home
46.3% (462)
60.1% (599)
Away
44.6% (551)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Byfield
Hertl
P1
44.6%
52.4%
P2
43.4%
63.9%
P3
48.7%
58.5%
OT
37.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
42.6%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Byfield
54.0%▼
57.0%
45.4%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 11:47 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 13:10 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 01:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 13:51 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 08:36 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:54 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |