Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Faksa wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Faksa 53.2% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 79.2%
Defensive zone
Faksa 75.3%
Neutral zone
Faksa 50.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Faksa
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Faksa
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Faksa
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Faksa
2
0
Faksa
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Faksa
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (289)
55.7% (856)
+0.7%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
57.5% (233)
-57.5%
Penalty Kill
49.2% (126)
50.0% (144)
-0.8%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +57.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Faksa is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (273).
Faksa shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Faksa
O'Reilly
Home
54.9% (182)
55.5% (616)
Away
53.2% (235)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Faksa
O'Reilly
P1
61.1%
58.1%
P2
51.3%
54.9%
P3
50.0%
53.9%
Final 5 min
49.1%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Faksa
54.0%▲
50.5%
54.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 18:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 18:02 | Defensive | Radek Faksa |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 17:40 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 05:39 | Defensive | Radek Faksa |