Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Faksa wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Faksa 53.2% vs Hertl 57.4% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 68.6%
Defensive zone
Faksa 92.2%
Neutral zone
Faksa 71.0%
Result
Radek Faksa favored at 63.6%
63.6%
36.4%
Faksa
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Faksa
Hertl
Last 5: Faksa 1-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Faksa
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Faksa
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Faksa
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Faksa
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (289)
58.5% (845)
-2.1%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
56.2% (281)
-56.2%
Penalty Kill
49.2% (126)
62.9% (35)
-13.7%
On power play, Hertl has a +56.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Faksa is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (273).
Faksa shoots left. Hertl is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Home / Away
Faksa
Hertl
Home
54.9% (182)
60.0% (582)
Away
53.2% (235)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Faksa
Hertl
P1
61.1%
52.1%
P2
51.3%
63.6%
P3
50.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
49.1%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Faksa
54.0%▲
50.5%
54.0%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 19:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 13:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 05:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 17:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 03:35 | Defensive | Radek Faksa |