Scouting Report
Ridly Greig holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kapanen wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kapanen 47.1% vs Greig 51.1% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kapanen 89.9%
Defensive zone
Kapanen 65.4%
Neutral zone
Kapanen 76.5%
Result
Oliver Kapanen favored at 74.0%
74.0%
26.0%
Kapanen
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Kapanen
Greig
Last 7: Kapanen 1-6 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kapanen
Greig
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
4
Kapanen
Greig
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greig
0
1
Kapanen
Greig
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kapanen
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (527)
51.9% (347)
-5.4%
Power Play
54.8% (42)
66.7% (24)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (38)
44.8% (87)
-5.3%
On power play, Greig has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Kapanen is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (449).
Kapanen shoots right. Greig is 58.2% vs right-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
Kapanen
Greig
Home
47.0% (315)
50.4% (254)
Away
46.2% (292)
52.5% (204)
By Period
Kapanen
Greig
P1
41.6%
45.9%
P2
50.7%
60.1%
P3
47.6%
49.2%
OT
25.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
44.4%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kapanen
32.0%▼
47.0%
46.6%
Greig
58.0%▲
52.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | 3 | 04:05 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 11, 2026 | 1 | 03:18 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 09:31 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 16:34 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 16:08 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:21 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |