Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Greig wins 45.0% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greig 51.1% vs Monahan 52.5% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 76.8%
Defensive zone
Greig 68.7%
Neutral zone
Monahan 62.2%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Greig
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Greig
Monahan
Last 6: Greig 4-2 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Greig
Monahan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greig
3
1
Greig
Monahan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greig
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (347)
53.0% (874)
-1.1%
Power Play
66.7% (24)
54.7% (161)
+12.0%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (87)
47.5% (101)
-2.7%
On power play, Greig has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Greig is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (238).
Greig shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (710).
Home / Away
Greig
Monahan
Home
50.4% (254)
53.8% (558)
Away
52.5% (204)
51.7% (578)
By Period
Greig
Monahan
P1
45.9%
49.5%
P2
60.1%
54.8%
P3
49.2%
52.8%
OT
0.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
54.3%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greig
58.0%▲
52.0%
51.3%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 17:59 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:45 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:31 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:25 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:36 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 01:10 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |