Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Fabbri on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Fabbri wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fabbri 47.3% vs Aho 54.9% (-9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 58.8%
Defensive zone
Fabbri 70.3%
Neutral zone
Fabbri 56.4%
Result
Robby Fabbri favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Fabbri
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Fabbri
Aho
Last 5: Fabbri 2-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Fabbri
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fabbri
2
1
Fabbri
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fabbri
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (113)
54.5% (870)
-10.3%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
62.4% (266)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (25)
37.1% (62)
+6.9%
On even strength, Aho has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Fabbri is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (117).
Fabbri shoots left. Aho is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Home / Away
Fabbri
Aho
Home
49.2% (61)
53.9% (603)
Away
43.2% (95)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Fabbri
Aho
P1
37.7%
54.1%
P2
41.9%
55.0%
P3
54.2%
57.4%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
41.2%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fabbri
44.0%▼
51.0%
45.5%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2025 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 2 | 06:17 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 1 | 12:04 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 1 | 06:19 | Neutral | Robby Fabbri |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 1 | 02:55 | Neutral | Robby Fabbri |