Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fabbri 47.4% vs Hertl 54.3% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fabbri 72.3%
Defensive zone
Fabbri 60.3%
Neutral zone
Fabbri 67.2%
Result
Robby Fabbri favored at 64.3%
64.3%
35.7%
Fabbri
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Fabbri
Hertl
Last 6: Fabbri 2-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fabbri
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Fabbri
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fabbri
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (531)
53.9% (8,303)
-8.5%
Power Play
53.0% (168)
59.2% (1,995)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (28)
46.3% (806)
-3.4%
On even strength, Hertl has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Fabbri is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (486).
Fabbri shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Fabbri
Hertl
Home
48.6% (368)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
45.4% (359)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Fabbri
Hertl
P1
44.1%
53.6%
P2
49.0%
54.2%
P3
48.2%
55.3%
OT
37.5%
46.9%
Final 5 min
44.8%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fabbri
44.0%▼
51.0%
47.0%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2024 | 3 | 17:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 2 | 17:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 2 | 05:31 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 1 | 15:16 | Defensive | Robby Fabbri |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 1 | 08:23 | Offensive | Robby Fabbri |