Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Howden wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 49.7% vs Thomas 51.7% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Howden 60.8%
Defensive zone
Howden 62.2%
Neutral zone
Howden 59.2%
Result
Brett Howden favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
Howden
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Howden
Thomas
Last 5: Howden 1-4 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
1
2
Howden
Thomas
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Howden
Thomas
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Howden
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (397)
50.2% (635)
-0.6%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
61.0% (100)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (34)
53.4% (118)
-6.3%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Howden is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Howden shoots left. Thomas is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (598).
Home / Away
Howden
Thomas
Home
46.2% (212)
52.0% (400)
Away
52.7% (237)
51.9% (453)
By Period
Howden
Thomas
P1
50.7%
49.4%
P2
51.9%
55.2%
P3
48.5%
50.7%
OT
26.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
50.5%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
42.0%▼
45.0%
49.7%
Thomas
48.0%▲
45.5%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 02:34 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 19:01 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 13:07 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 15:11 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 05:57 | Offensive | Brett Howden |