Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on neutral-zone draws (64% H2H, 22 meetings). Bedard wins 40.5% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.4% vs Thomas 51.6% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 21-16 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Bedard 82.3%
Defensive zone
Bedard 71.4%
Neutral zone
Bedard 81.6%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 79.8%
79.8%
20.2%
Bedard
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
21
(37 meetings)
16
21
Bedard
Thomas
Last 10: Bedard 4-6 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Bedard
Thomas
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
4
3
Bedard
Thomas
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
8
14
Bedard
Thomas
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,635)
51.1% (5,387)
-10.9%
Power Play
51.8% (83)
55.8% (927)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
50.2% (697)
-0.2%
On even strength, Thomas has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Bedard is 40.5% vs right-shot opponents (481).
Bedard shoots right. Thomas is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (2,044).
Home / Away
Bedard
Thomas
Home
43.3% (785)
50.9% (3,484)
Away
38.9% (957)
52.3% (3,527)
By Period
Bedard
Thomas
P1
38.9%
50.7%
P2
41.2%
53.0%
P3
42.5%
50.8%
OT
42.9%
59.2%
Final 5 min
44.9%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.9%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2025 | 3 | 14:08 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 3 | 09:28 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 3 | 03:27 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 2 | 13:44 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 2 | 10:58 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 2 | 08:33 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 1 | 13:42 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:04 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 08:50 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 12:06 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 03:50 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 15:14 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:27 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 10:51 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 10:38 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:10 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |