Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Zary wins 45.9% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zary 47.1% vs Thomas 51.9% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zary 55.4%
Defensive zone
Zary 52.9%
Neutral zone
Zary 52.2%
Result
Connor Zary favored at 54.4%
54.4%
45.6%
Zary
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Zary
Thomas
Last 5: Zary 2-3 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
3
Zary
Thomas
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zary
2
0
Zary
Thomas
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zary
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
47.1% (136)
50.3% (652)
-3.2%
Power Play
31.6% (19)
61.5% (104)
-29.9%
On power play, Thomas has a +29.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Zary is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (74).
Zary shoots left. Thomas is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Zary
Thomas
Home
45.6% (79)
52.0% (400)
Away
44.7% (76)
52.3% (476)
By Period
Zary
Thomas
P1
48.3%
49.6%
P2
46.3%
55.4%
P3
39.5%
51.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zary
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.2%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 12:35 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 12:27 | Defensive | Connor Zary |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:16 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 02:47 | Defensive | Connor Zary |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 03:10 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |