Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McBain wins 44.5% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 45.9% vs Thomas 52.9% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 66.9%
Defensive zone
McBain 62.5%
Neutral zone
McBain 62.1%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 65.3%
65.3%
34.7%
McBain
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
McBain
Thomas
Last 6: McBain 1-5 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
1
3
McBain
Thomas
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
2
McBain
Thomas
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (568)
53.2% (1,166)
-6.9%
Power Play
37.5% (8)
56.9% (262)
-19.4%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (74)
48.4% (221)
-10.6%
On power play, Thomas has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. McBain is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (209).
McBain shoots left. Thomas is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,162).
Home / Away
McBain
Thomas
Home
50.6% (330)
51.6% (830)
Away
39.7% (320)
54.7% (819)
By Period
McBain
Thomas
P1
45.4%
52.7%
P2
44.5%
55.6%
P3
45.7%
50.6%
Final 5 min
48.0%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
52.0%▲
49.5%
45.2%
Thomas
36.0%▼
50.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 15:30 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 06:57 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 09:16 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 08:15 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 04:47 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 14:42 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |