Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thomas 51.9% vs Carrick 54.2% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 58.9%
Defensive zone
Carrick 83.1%
Neutral zone
Carrick 58.5%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 58.9%
58.9%
41.1%
Thomas
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Thomas
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
2
0
Thomas
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thomas
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (652)
55.5% (470)
-5.2%
Power Play
61.5% (104)
66.7% (3)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
54.2% (120)
50.0% (58)
+4.2%
On even strength, Carrick has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Thomas is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (255).
Thomas shoots right. Carrick is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (144).
Home / Away
Thomas
Carrick
Home
52.0% (400)
58.6% (261)
Away
52.3% (476)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Thomas
Carrick
P1
49.6%
55.9%
P2
55.4%
53.5%
P3
51.0%
55.6%
OT
57.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.2%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 19:56 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 18:11 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |